Monday, October 27, 2025–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
In overnight news, U.S.-China come to agreement on several trade issues. Top trade negotiators for the U.S. and China over the weekend said they have come to terms on a range of contentious points, setting the stage for Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping to finalize a trade deal later this week when they are scheduled to meet. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, speaking in an interview with CBS News, said Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods “is effectively off the table” and he expected China to make “substantial” soybean purchases as well as offer a deferral on sweeping rare earth controls. “So, I would expect that the threat of the 100% has gone away, as has the threat of the immediate imposition of the Chinese initiating a worldwide export control regime,” Bessent said, as reported by Bloomberg. Bessent said a wide-ranging agreement between Trump and Xi would extend a tariff truce, resolve differences over the sale of TikTok and keep up the flow of rare earth magnets. The two leaders are also planning to discuss a global peace plan, he said, after Trump said publicly he hoped to enlist Xi’s help in resolving Russia’s war in Ukraine. “They (China) want to make a deal, and we want to make a deal,” Trump said. Global stock markets rallied overnight on the U.S-China trade deal hopes. U.S. stock indexes are pointed solidly higher and to new record highs when the New York day session begins. Safe-haven gold and silver prices were sharply down overnight, on the better risk appetite in the general marketplace.
U.S. trade deals with other Asian countries also in the works. President Trump also said over the weekend other trade deals with several countries in Southeast Asia are close to fruition, with the aim of increasing access to critical minerals and markets for U.S. agricultural goods. The agreements include exemptions from tariffs on key exports from countries such as Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Malaysia, and framework trade pacts that will be enacted in the coming weeks. The deals are seen as an attempt to bolster Trump’s position ahead of his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week.
The cost of borrowing silver in London has retreated from a record high, a sign that greater liquidity has returned to the silver market, said a Bloomberg report. Silver lease rates fell to 5.6% on Monday after surging to an all-time peak of 34.9% on Oct. 9, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The London Bullion Market Association is considering the weekly publication of silver inventory levels, with Chief Executive Officer Ruth Crowell saying the white metal would be prioritized over gold.
Fed expected to trim U.S. interest rates this week. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon is expected to deliver a second straight 0.25% interest-rate cut to support a shaky job market but may face some opposition from officials anxious over inflation. Fresh data on Friday showed U.S. consumer prices rose in September at the slowest pace in three months, supporting the Federal Open Market Committee’s plan to cut rates this week. Fed policymakers are divided, however, with some worrying that cutting rates will go too far and others supporting even further reductions, all amid the lack of U.S. government economic data releases during the federal government shutdown. Meantime, Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed the names of five finalists to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The finalists are current Fed board members Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and BlackRock Inc. executive Rick Rieder. President Trump said he expects to make a decision on the nominee before the end of the year.
One important sign the U.S. government shutdown could come to an end sooner… With the U.S. government shutdown in its fourth week, the effects of the standoff between Republican and Democratic lawmakers were being felt by U.S. air travelers, as flights began to back up. U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy over the weekend warned that U.S. travelers will face more flight delays and cancellations in the coming weeks as the continuing shutdown exacerbates the air-traffic controller staffing crunch. “What I see coming forward, as we get to Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, that you’re going to see more staffing shortages in towers, which means you’re going to see more delays, more cancellations,” Duffy told Fox News on Sunday and as reported by Bloomberg. Air traffic controllers were notified last week that they will not be paid because of the government shutdown, which began on Oct. 1. Duffy said more air traffic workers are calling in sick and not showing up for work, with some employees looking for second jobs and other sources of income to help make ends meet. There’s one thing both Democrats and Republicans can agree on, and for which neither can run for cover: They don’t want to face the blame, fury and potential election day consequences of tens of thousands of angry American voters stuck in airports and on the tarmac. That situation could prompt a compromise among U.S. lawmakers to reopen the government.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $61.28 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.028%.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
In overnight trading, the December e-mini S&P 500 futures stock index futures were solidly higher and hit a record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above resistance at 7,000.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of 6,690.75. First resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 6,890.00 and then at 6,950.00. First support is seen at 6,800.00 and then at 6,750.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.5
The December Nasdaq 100 stock index futures are sharply higher in early U.S. trading and hit a contract/record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid resistance at 26,000.00. The bears’ next downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 24,804.75. First resistance is seen at 25,900.00 and then at 26,000.00. First support is seen at 25,570.75 and then at 25,276.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
In early U.S. trading, December U.S. T-Bond prices were lower. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar chart but the bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep the uptrend alive. The next upside price objective for the T-Bond bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 120 even. The next downside technical objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at 116 even. First resistance is seen at 119 even and then at last week’s high of 119 19/32. First support is seen at the overnight low of 117 27/32 and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.0
December U.S. T Notes prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The note market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending up but the bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep the uptrend alive. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 115.00.0. The next downside price objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at 112.16.0. First resistance is seen at 113.16.0 and then at Friday’s high of 113.24.0. First support is seen at 113.00.0 and then at 112.24.0. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.0.
EURO CURRENCY, USDX
In overnight trading, the December Euro currency was slightly up. The bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The Euro bulls’ next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.1800. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at 1.1495. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 1.1712 and then at 1.1765. Next support is seen at last week’s low of 1.1612 and then at the October low of 1.1582. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.5
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls’ next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 99.600. The next downside price objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the July low of 95.700. Next resistance is seen at 99.000 and then at 99.600. First support is seen at last week’s low of 97.985 and then at 97.805. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
In early trading, December Nymex crude oil futures are slightly lower. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside price objective for the crude oil bulls is closing prices above resistance at the September high of $65.77. The next near-term downside price objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the October low of $55.96. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $62.59 and then at $64.00. First support is seen at $60.00 and then at $59.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5
PRECIOUS METALS
December gold futures are sharply lower in early U.S. trading. A bear flag has formed on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,200.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,900.00. First resistance is seen at $4,100 and then at the overnight high of $4,123.80. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4,021.20 and then at $4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0
September silver futures were sharply down overnight. A bear flag pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $50.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $45.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $48.595 and then at $49.00. Next support is seen at last week’s low of $46.82 and then at $46.50. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
December corn futures prices are solidly up in early U.S. trading and hit a six-week high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $4.31 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the October low of $4.09 1/4. First resistance is seen at $4.31 1/4 and then at $4.35. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4.26 1/4 and then at $4.20. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0
January soybean futures were sharply up and hit a four-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at $11.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.50. First resistance is seen at the June high of $10.87 and then at $11.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $10.70 1/4 and then at $10.63. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.5
December SRW wheat futures were solidly up and hit a four-week high overnight. Bulls have gained momentum and are working on a price uptrend on the daily chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.30 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at the overnight low of $5.16 3/4 and then at $5.10. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0
